Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin will drop to $75,000 for Trump

Bitcoin is set to fall in the $70,000 to $75,000 range. The main driver of the drop will be the realisation that the policy of the current US president is not substantially different from that of his predecessors, said former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes.

The scenario could change if the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury, China, Japan and other major economies expand liquidity, or if specific regulations are adopted to encourage the development of innovations in the crypto sector.

In a new essay for The Genie, the expert addressed the issue of the creation of a National Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) in the United States.

The main problem with the initiative is that the authorities are aiming to accumulate assets for political purposes rather than for real financial benefit.

Hayes doubts that digital gold will benefit Donald Trump's administration, considering the current structure of the global financial system.

Even if the president's election promise to purchase 1 million BTCs is fulfilled, the situation could change dramatically within two to four years.

If the Republican leader fails to manage inflation, stop conflicts and ensure stability in the food supply by 2026, Democrats could win back the House of Representatives, and in 2028, hypothetically, California Governor Gavin Newsom could enter the White House.

According to Hayes, political opponents could "punish" crypto investors who supported Trump.

"There will be 1 million BTCs ready to be sold; all you need is a signature on a piece of paper. Finding easy money to spend to give gifts to supporters is the prime directive," he added.

In his view, the launch of the SBR could be "purely negative" for the crypto industry, as it would turn Bitcoin into a "political weapon."

The co-founder of BitMEX is convinced that the US will only buy or sell Bitcoin for financial gain.

In December, Hayes expressed doubts about the adoption of the SBR, predicting that the administration would prefer to use "empty" printed dollars to satisfy voters rather than buy the first cryptocurrency.

The Probability of Creating a Reserve in Bitcoin

According to forecasting platform Polymarket, the chance of a national Bitcoin reserve being approved in the first 100 days of the Trump presidency is estimated at 14%.

At its peak, the indicator had reached 48 per cent, with a transaction volume of $6.5 million.

In February, Senator Cynthia Lummis announced support for her initiative to create the SBR at the federal level.

Previously, VanEck had calculated that approval of the SBR would help the US reduce the national debt by 35% by 2050.

Finally, Fidelity Digital Assets believes that the adoption of the first nationwide cryptocurrency in 2025 will be a powerful catalyst for digital assets.

Analyst Thomas Farrer predicted a rise of $50,000 in just one minute should US authorities confirm the creation of a Bitcoin reserve.

The SBR will be a major catalyst for digital assets.