The Bitcoin Macro Index signals uncertainties about BTC's return to $110K, highlighting macroeconomic factors that could hinder further rises.
The Bitcoin Macro Index raises doubts about BTC's possible return to $110K, signalling caution despite market optimism. Despite Bitcoin's strong rally and growing institutional interest, macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates and liquidity conditions could hinder further price increases. Analysts point to historical cycles and economic indicators that suggest BTC could encounter resistance before reaching new highs. Although bullish sentiment persists, external economic pressures could slow Bitcoin's momentum. Investors are closely monitoring market trends to see if BTC will break through critical levels or if a correction is imminent.
Bitcoin is at risk of entering a new bearish market phase, as one of its most important price indicators has shown a bearish divergence. On 27 March, several commentators on the crypto market on X reported worrying signals from Capriole Investments' Bitcoin Macro Index.
Not great. But. when Bitcoin Macro Index turns positive, I won't be fighting it. https://t.co/PB2OPW1VnL
The Bitcoin Macro Index Creator on the Declining Index: "Not a Good Sign"
The Bitcoin Capriole's Macro Index, created in 2022, uses machine learning to analyse data from numerous parameters that, according to founder Charles Edwards, "offer a clear picture of Bitcoin's relative value over historical cycles".
"The model is based solely on on-chain and macroeconomic data. What makes it unique is that it does not consider price data or technical analysis among its inputs,' Edwards explained during the tool's presentation.
Since the end of 2023, the indicator has been registering decreasing highs while the price has been registering increasing highs, creating a 'bearish divergence'. Although this is a common phenomenon in previous bullish markets, the potential implication is that BTC/USD has already peaked in the current market.
divergence between BTC/USD and Bitcoin Macro Index
"Not a good sign," Edwards commented in response to the index divergence.
Bitcoin Price Metrics in Stall
In a recent "Quicktake" blog post, analysts at CryptoQuant examined four on-chain metrics that currently indicate a state of uncertainty in the market.
"All of these metrics signal increased bearish pressure on Bitcoin in the short to medium term," said analyst Burak Kesmeci. "However, none of them suggest that Bitcoin has reached the overheat level or the top of the cycle."
The indicators analysed include Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unspent Profit/Loss (NUPL), as well as the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), which took a bearish turn in February. To reverse this, according to Kesmedji, the IFP would need to return above its 90-day simple moving average (SMA).
Bitcoin's current price fluctuations reflect a broader context of uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market. Despite signs of a possible bearish trend, experts point out that Bitcoin has not yet reached the critical overheating level typical of the end of the cycle. The metrics indicate turbulence, but leave room for a recovery if macroeconomic conditions improve.
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The Bitcoin Macro Index raises doubts about BTC's possible return to $110K, signalling caution despite market optimism. Despite Bitcoin's strong rally and growing institutional interest, macroeconomic factors such as inflation, interest rates and liquidity conditions could hinder further price increases. Analysts point to historical cycles and economic indicators that suggest BTC could encounter resistance before reaching new highs. Although bullish sentiment persists, external economic pressures could slow Bitcoin's momentum. Investors are closely monitoring market trends to see if BTC will break through critical levels or if a correction is imminent.
Bitcoin is at risk of entering a new bearish market phase, as one of its most important price indicators has shown a bearish divergence. On 27 March, several commentators on the crypto market on X reported worrying signals from Capriole Investments' Bitcoin Macro Index.
X
The Bitcoin Macro Index Creator on the Declining Index: "Not a Good Sign"
The Bitcoin Capriole's Macro Index, created in 2022, uses machine learning to analyse data from numerous parameters that, according to founder Charles Edwards, "offer a clear picture of Bitcoin's relative value over historical cycles".
"The model is based solely on on-chain and macroeconomic data. What makes it unique is that it does not consider price data or technical analysis among its inputs,' Edwards explained during the tool's presentation.
Since the end of 2023, the indicator has been registering decreasing highs while the price has been registering increasing highs, creating a 'bearish divergence'. Although this is a common phenomenon in previous bullish markets, the potential implication is that BTC/USD has already peaked in the current market.
Bitcoin Price Metrics in Stall
In a recent "Quicktake" blog post, analysts at CryptoQuant examined four on-chain metrics that currently indicate a state of uncertainty in the market.
"All of these metrics signal increased bearish pressure on Bitcoin in the short to medium term," said analyst Burak Kesmeci. "However, none of them suggest that Bitcoin has reached the overheat level or the top of the cycle."
The indicators analysed include Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Net Unspent Profit/Loss (NUPL), as well as the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), which took a bearish turn in February. To reverse this, according to Kesmedji, the IFP would need to return above its 90-day simple moving average (SMA).
Bitcoin's current price fluctuations reflect a broader context of uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market. Despite signs of a possible bearish trend, experts point out that Bitcoin has not yet reached the critical overheating level typical of the end of the cycle. The metrics indicate turbulence, but leave room for a recovery if macroeconomic conditions improve.
Sign up for Spaziocrypto®
The community for Blockchain, Cryptocurrency and Innovative Technologies enthusiasts, combining Passion, Knowledge and Opportunities in the Digital World
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