Analysis of 2021 and 2025 data (Coinbase, Bullish, Figure) showing how crypto IPOs cluster near Bitcoin's peaks, suggesting preferential market timing.
Do initial public offerings (IPOs) of crypto companies represent the most accurate peak signal for the market, or are they simply something that investors keep re-testing because it rings true during late-cycle fervour?
Data offer a neat cluster to examine. Coinbase's direct listing came on 14 April 2021, the precise day Bitcoin hit a then-record close to $64,000.
Stronghold Digital Mining priced its IPO on 19-20 October 2021, about three weeks before Bitcoin's 10 November peak near $68,789. There is a familiar rhythm: during strong advances crypto, the path to the public markets tends to open up for exchanges, brokers, miners and asset managers, often when volumes, fees and media attention peak.
The Return in the Cycle 2025
In this cycle, Bullish's debut on 13 August 2025 and Figure's pricing on 10 September 2025 landed within eight and four weeks respectively of Bitcoin's all-time high of 6 October, near $126,198. Grayscale's public IPO filing on 13 November 2025 followed the top by just over a month, adding a late entry to the same window.
In 2025, Bullish and Figure lined up in August and September, with Bitcoin completing the move in early October. The sequence does not prove a rule or offer a clock, but it does provide portfolio managers with a clear anchor for end-of-cycle monitoring as the dates are fixed, the deposits reveal the company mix, and the deals include details on the quality of the order book.
Bullish attracted heavy trading on the first day and a valuation near the top of its range. Figure priced at $25, according to the company, as Bitcoin's October print set a cycle high.
Subsequently, the tone has shifted from listing to filing, with Grayscale showing $318.7 million in revenue and $203.3 million in net income for the first nine months of 2025 and acknowledging pressure on fees in its public filings.
Calculating the IPO Signal
An easy way to track the pattern is to measure the days from each listing to the peak of the cycle. The 2021 and 2025 windows fall within a range that seems tradable, roughly T minus 60 days to T plus 30 days, where T is the all-time high.
Coinbase has reached T0, Stronghold near T minus 22, Bullish near T minus 54, Figure near T minus 26 and the Grayscale deposit near T plus 38. This cadence seems less a coincidence and more a timing preference of the funding market, where teams favour 'growth' windows for valuation, while investors find that liquidity without an open growth path can coincide with distribution in the secondary market.
In general, exchange listings have been the cleanest timing markers, which corresponds to business models that benefit when turnover peaks.
It is crucial to balance the data: for example, Canaan's IPO in November 2019 landed closer to a floor than the bear market, reminding us that macro, product cycle and company specifics can override seasonal timing.
If the thesis requires a sentence, it is this: crypto IPOs do not announce tops by decree. They cluster near the end of strong runs because that is when the market pays more for flow-through gains, and this cycle has followed the same script.
Persistent outflows from Bitcoin ETFs and the extreme fear index (11) contrast with aggressive whale accumulation. Retail is absent while large investors are buying.
Bitcoin fell sharply to $93,000, triggering liquidations of $510M in 24 hours and wiping out all gains for the year. The Fear and Greed index dropped to 10, signalling panic among traders.
Bitcoin 'whales' (1k-10k BTC wallet) resume accumulation. They added 29,600 BTC in 7 days, signalling confidence against retail panic. The price consolidates between $100,000 and $107,000.
Do initial public offerings (IPOs) of crypto companies represent the most accurate peak signal for the market, or are they simply something that investors keep re-testing because it rings true during late-cycle fervour?
Data offer a neat cluster to examine. Coinbase's direct listing came on 14 April 2021, the precise day Bitcoin hit a then-record close to $64,000.
Stronghold Digital Mining priced its IPO on 19-20 October 2021, about three weeks before Bitcoin's 10 November peak near $68,789. There is a familiar rhythm: during strong advances crypto, the path to the public markets tends to open up for exchanges, brokers, miners and asset managers, often when volumes, fees and media attention peak.
The Return in the Cycle 2025
In this cycle, Bullish's debut on 13 August 2025 and Figure's pricing on 10 September 2025 landed within eight and four weeks respectively of Bitcoin's all-time high of 6 October, near $126,198. Grayscale's public IPO filing on 13 November 2025 followed the top by just over a month, adding a late entry to the same window.
In 2025, Bullish and Figure lined up in August and September, with Bitcoin completing the move in early October. The sequence does not prove a rule or offer a clock, but it does provide portfolio managers with a clear anchor for end-of-cycle monitoring as the dates are fixed, the deposits reveal the company mix, and the deals include details on the quality of the order book.
Bullish attracted heavy trading on the first day and a valuation near the top of its range. Figure priced at $25, according to the company, as Bitcoin's October print set a cycle high.
Subsequently, the tone has shifted from listing to filing, with Grayscale showing $318.7 million in revenue and $203.3 million in net income for the first nine months of 2025 and acknowledging pressure on fees in its public filings.
Calculating the IPO Signal
An easy way to track the pattern is to measure the days from each listing to the peak of the cycle. The 2021 and 2025 windows fall within a range that seems tradable, roughly T minus 60 days to T plus 30 days, where T is the all-time high.
Coinbase has reached T0, Stronghold near T minus 22, Bullish near T minus 54, Figure near T minus 26 and the Grayscale deposit near T plus 38. This cadence seems less a coincidence and more a timing preference of the funding market, where teams favour 'growth' windows for valuation, while investors find that liquidity without an open growth path can coincide with distribution in the secondary market.
In general, exchange listings have been the cleanest timing markers, which corresponds to business models that benefit when turnover peaks.
It is crucial to balance the data: for example, Canaan's IPO in November 2019 landed closer to a floor than the bear market, reminding us that macro, product cycle and company specifics can override seasonal timing.
If the thesis requires a sentence, it is this: crypto IPOs do not announce tops by decree. They cluster near the end of strong runs because that is when the market pays more for flow-through gains, and this cycle has followed the same script.
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