The latest quarterly report from Coinbase has shaken the market, simultaneously hitting two different fronts: shareholders, disappointed by the numbers, and savers who, while not owning COIN shares, depend on the exchange's infrastructure for their ETF investments.
Against a backdrop of cooling prices and crypto activity, Coinbase has reported revenues of about $1.78 billion, but closed the quarter with a net loss of $667 million ($2.49 per share), missing analysts' estimates of a profit.
The Numbers of the Crisis: Declining Trading and Future Betting
Despite the net loss, Coinbase's disclosure materials describe a company still generating cash, with an EBITDA adjusted $566 million. However, the beating heart of the business - trading - came to a screeching halt. Transaction revenues fell to around USD 983 million, reflecting a decline in adrenaline among retail investors, who are tired of less volatile markets lacking viral coins.
To counter this cyclicality, Coinbase is looking to change its skin. Subscription and Services revenues reached $727 million, with growth driven by stablecoin-related services. Looking to the immediate future, the company said it generated about $420 million in transaction revenues through 10 February 2026, while cautioning not to extrapolate these figures too aggressively.
The custody dilemma: is the security of ETFs at risk?
The second group to 'break a cold sweat' is that of holders of spot Bitcoin ETFs (such as BlackRock's IBIT). Coinbase is in fact the custodian of the vast majority of these products, which collectively hold about 7% of the maximum Bitcoin supply (about 1.5 million BTC). When Coinbase misses its targets, a question arises: is the custodian in danger?
The reality is more pragmatic. Custody is designed to be a 'boring' and regulated business, separate from the directional risk of trading. Even if trading volumes decline, ETF Bitcoins remain segregated under a strict compliance framework.
Despite the disappointing results, there are no signs of a retreat from the sector; on the contrary, the acquisition of Deribit in 2025 demonstrates Coinbase's intention to also dominate the derivatives and institutional infrastructure market.
The institutional factor and capital flight
The quarter's heavy sentiment is also fuelled by the behaviour of US institutional investors. The ETF Bitcoin spot saw outflows of around $4.57 billion between November and December, followed by another $1.8 billion flight in early 2026.
These flows change the perception of the ecosystem: when capital exits, it appears that the 'big boys' have left the room, increasing the pressure on Coinbase.
The political playoff and stablecoins
In the background, a crucial political game is being played. CEO Brian Armstrong pointed out that negotiations on market structure are ongoing, with a particular focus on stablecoin rewards.
The government and the banks are renegotiating the terms of what could be a legislative compromise: progress on crypto regulation in exchange for restrictions on rewards linked to stablecoins. As this sector is critical to Coinbase's revenue stability, any change of course in Washington could reshape the company's narrative.
Conclusion: disappointment or structural breakup?
Coinbase is no longer a fragile startup, but a pillar of the global financial infrastructure. Although the market punishes the company's dependence on the 'mood' of traders, its strategic position remains solid.
For investors in ETF, the signals to monitor are not so much earnings per share, but custody concentration, policy developments on stablecoins, and successful expansion into new markets such as equities and prediction markets.
