Polymarket Bets on Bitcoin in Trump's Speech

Prediction service users are estimating the likelihood that the new US president will talk about cryptocurrencies during his inauguration.

The way President-elect Donald Trump's administration will handle cryptocurrencies is already generating a lot of interest as he prepares to take office. The link between politics and cryptocurrency is in the headlines, with Polymarket users betting on whether cryptocurrency-related terms will be mentioned in his inaugural address and stories about possible executive orders addressing important regulatory issues. The stage is set for what could be a turning point for the digital asset market in the US, with the hiring of pro-cryptocurrency officials and suspected policy changes.

Trump's inauguration ceremony is scheduled for 20 January. During it, according to tradition, the new head of state is expected to give a speech.

Users of Polymarket bet almost $646,000 on whether Trump will say "cryptocurrency" or "bitcoin" or not, and over $329.000 on whether he will mention DOGE or Dogecoin in his speech.

As of 00:00 on 14 January, the probability of Trump mentioning "crypto" or "bitcoin" (in a single bet) is estimated at 19%, while the odds of hearing Trump mention DOGE or Dogecoin are 12%.

According to the rules, any use of the terms, regardless of context, will be taken into account. So, in addition to the topic of cryptocurrencies, the word DOGE is a shortened name for the new Department of Government Effectiveness in the United States, which Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been appointed to head.

Probability of Mentions: Terms and Key Figures

The word "Biden" has the highest probability of being mentioned, according to users - 89%, followed by "America First" - 76%, "America" (15 or more mentions) - 72%, and "God" (four or more mentions) - 66%. Also on the list are "Kamala", "McDonald's" and "Elon Musk".

The total volume of bets in the prediction pool on what Trump will say in his inauguration speech exceeded $2 million at the time of publication. As a result, bets on "cryptocurrency" options account for almost half of this volume.

Industry participants expect Trump to immediately start implementing his election promises to support the cryptocurrency market after taking office. However, experts believe that significant changes cannot happen quickly; it will take time.

The Polymarket platform itself is facing regulatory issues. On 12 January, it was reported that the service was defined as an illegal gambling provider in Singapore and blocked. It had previously been banned in the United States and France.