Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Bitfinex's 'Whale' Challenges the $100,000 Resistance

The Bitcoin market is experiencing a dynamic stalemate around the psychological threshold of $90,000. Despite the difficulty in building a lasting bullish momentum, there are signs of aggressive accumulation by large institutional players who seem willing to bet against general scepticism.

The Shadow of the Whale: 40 Million Dollars in Daily Purchases

According to Blockstream CEO Adam Back, a mysterious "whale of Bitfinex" is reportedly buying about 450 Bitcoins per day. At current prices (around $90,233 at the time of writing), this flow translates into a daily demand of $40.6 million.

It appears that the Bitfinex 'whale' is buying 450 BTC per day at this level. Initially it was 300 BTC per day, but now it has increased the pace to 450 around the $90,000 mark. That is the same amount of Bitcoins mined (mined) per day. Around $470 per second, all day long. As of 15:00 UTC, it has written Adam on X.

This buying pressure is theoretically able to offset the entire new daily supply put on the market by the miners, acting as a powerful stabilising force. However, it remains to be seen whether this flow can change the character of a market that has recently seen participants sell quickly at the first signs of recovery.

Strategic Accumulation Against Market Scepticism

Santiment's data confirms that this activity is not isolated. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC (referred to as 'whales and sharks') have added a total of 36.322 BTC in the past nine days, an increase of 0.27%.

Although this data is encouraging, analysts warn that the accumulation does not necessarily reveal the price levels at which these holders could become sellers, nor does it guarantee that the market has the depth necessary to overcome the "overhead" supply.

Glassnode's "Failed Breakout" Map

In his latest report Week On-Chain, analyst firm Glassnode describes Bitcoin in a "moderately bearish" phase, defined by precise cost levels:

• Support: The "True Market Mean" at around $81,100.
• Resistance: The Short-Term Holders (STH) cost base at $98,400.

Failed Breakout

Entering early January 2026, signs of seller exhaustion opened the door for a rebound towards the upper bound of this range. However, this move carried elevated risk, as the price approached the ~$98k region, where breakeven supply from recent buyers became increasingly active.

Glassnode Insights - On-Chain Market IntelligenceCryptoVizArt

Glassnode points out that the area above $100,000 remains "large and dense" with supply. Many investors who bought near previous highs are using the bounces to break even, creating a 'ceiling' that is difficult to break through. In addition, realised P&L data show that those who have accumulated above $110,000 are selling out of "pain" as soon as price revisits their entry levels.

Derivatives and "Short Gamma": The Risk Under $90,000

The intersection of the whale narrative and market microstructure plays out in derivatives. Dealers' gamma positioning suggests an asymmetrical scenario:

1. Below $90,000: Dealers are "short gamma", meaning that hedging flows could amplify downward movements.
2. Over $90,000: The position becomes "long gamma", tending to dampen volatility and making the level more of a friction point than a launching pad.

While the futures market is described as a "ghost town" due to declining volumes, the margins on Bitfinex indicate a slight resumption of buying on the dips (dip buying), despite the monthly trend of long positions being down.

Conclusions: The Three Possible Scenarios

Bitcoin's near-term future will depend on the ability of spot demand to absorb the massive supply.

• Basic Case: Bitcoin continues to hover between $81,100 and $98,400.
• Rialist Case: An acceleration in demand breaks through $98,400 and absorbs the $100,000 area.
• Bearish Case: The price falls below $90,000, triggering forced hedges that could push the market towards deeper supports.