It will not be halving, nor the euphoria of small savers, nor even the macroeconomic picture that will push Bitcoin towards a new all-time high (ATH) in 2026. According to Chase Guo, a former business development executive at Binance, the next big leap for the queen cryptocurrency will be the result of sophisticated 'liquidity engineering' and structural dynamics within the market that are often invisible to the uninitiated.
Beyond the myth of digital gold
In a recent interview that is shaking up the crypto environment, Guo dismantled the classic narrative of Bitcoin as a passive safe haven asset. According to his analysis, the price of digital assets is governed by a triumvirate of forces: liquidity, attention and the so-called 'chip structure' (the distribution of tokens among holders).
These elements would determine trends over short to medium-term cycles (7 days to 3 months), leaving long-term fundamentals in the background. "Even Bitcoin," the former insider explained, "remains heavily influenced by short-term liquidity flows and leveraged positions."
The consensus as target
The heart of Guo's prediction for 2026 lies in the way the big players interact with the market consensus. When most traders align on a common narrative, liquidity tends to cluster around predictable price levels.
"When a consensus forms, it becomes a target," has suggested Guo.
In this scenario, more sophisticated participants could 'engineer' volatility to hit those cash hoards. The new ATH of 2026 could then arise from a short squeeze or a forced capital rotation designed to shake up over-exposed traders before the real rise kicks in.
Shadows from the past: Wash Trading and Flash Crash
Guo's words take on a different weight when read in light of Binance's legal battles. His descriptions of a market dominated by 'liquidity games' closely resemble the charges brought by the US SEC in 2023 against the exchange and its founder, Changpeng Zhao. The regulator had denounced practices of wash trading and inflated volumes to manipulate price perceptions.
In addition, the recent flash crash of 10 October 2025 (known as '10/10') reignited doubts about the stability of the system. During that flash crash, Bitcoin and the major altcoins lost ground within minutes amid order delays and abnormal price 'wicks' on Binance. Although the exchange's top management has attributed the event to macroeconomic shocks, critics see these episodes as evidence of engineered volatility.
A structural growth not emotional
Despite the risks, the outlook for 2026 remains bullish. With a market capitalisation that is still a fraction of that of gold, Bitcoin has ample room for expansion. However, Guo warns: the path will not be linear. There will be no smooth growth driven by emotion, but a series of violent swings designed to 'cleanse' the market of over-leveraged traders.
If Guo's thesis holds true, Bitcoin's next record high will not be a victory for the faith in decentralisation, but the ultimate demonstration of how financial engineering and liquidity positioning govern modern markets.
