Coinbase: Bernstein Predicts +60%, Bitcoin to $200K?

Bernstein analysts predict a 60 per cent increase in the value of shares of crypto exchange platform Coinbase.

According to the brokerage firm's analysts, the value of the US exchange's shares could reach $310. Bernstein has set a target price of $310 for Coinbase (COIN) shares, driven by the desire of former US President Donald Trump's administration to turn America into the 'cryptocurrency capital of the world', according to The Block. This represents an increase of more than 60 per cent over the current value of the platform's shares.

The price of COIN at the close of the Nasdaq session on March 17 was $188.96, according to TradingView. In the pre-market on 18 March, at 4pm, the share price fell to $185. Over the past month, shares have fallen 34 per cent.

Coinbase is the largest crypto exchange in the US, with a market share of about 66 per cent and about 10 million active users. According to The Block's dashboard, the exchange manages assets worth a total of $404 billion.

The role of Trump's politics and Coinbase's dominance

Bernstein noted that investors fear competitive pressure on Coinbase from other exchanges. However, according to the team of analysts led by Gautam Chugani, critics are underestimating the expansion of the crypto market in the US, boosted by the Trump administration's pro-crypto policies.

Despite growing competition from traditional brokers and banks, Coinbase remains the dominant platform and can take advantage of the favourable wind of government support. Experts believe that the strong bullish market and growing US dominance in crypto will more than offset any pressure on prices and market share.

Bernstein expects Coinbase to grow at a compound annual rate of 33% until the end of 2026. Revenues from trading will grow 34% annually, despite a reduction in US market share to 60% and a 20% decline in retail fees to maintain leadership. Non-trading revenues (staking, custody) will also grow at an annual rate of 31%.

$310 forecast for Coinbase and the rise of Bitcoin

The $310 target for Coinbase is based on an expected 21-fold growth in earnings per share by the end of 2026. Bernstein points out that real asset tokenization (RWA) and stablecoins could represent additional sources of revenue for exchanges like Coinbase.

Experts say the current bullish cycle is still in the early stages. With Trump's favourable policies, cryptocurrencies could move from speculative assets to true financial instruments in the digital markets.

"We are convinced that $100,000 does not represent the peak of the cycle for Bitcoin, and that the market still has plenty of opportunities for growth," said Chugani.

Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin will reach a peak of $200,000 by the end of 2025. However, if markets remain unstable due to macroeconomic factors and uncertainty over Trump's promises, the achievement of this level could slip to 2026, thus prolonging the bull market.

In January, Bernstein had already made several predictions, including:

• Bitcoin to 200.000 by the end of the year
• Total stablecoin capitalisation up 2.5 times
• Return of Ethereum due to institutional interest in tokenization of real assets