The so-called Santa Rally - Wall Street's famous tradition of markets rising in the last days of the year - has found an unexpectedly attentive audience this year among China's most followed "Crypto Twitter" analysts.
Far from seeing it as mere Western folklore, opinion leaders in the Asian community are interpreting the last trading sessions of 2025 as a critical signal for the course of 2026.
A barometer of risk appetite
Phyrex, one of the most quoted macro analysts in Chinese crypto circles, argues that the Santa Rally is not just a statistical curiosity. "It is more a barometer of the market's risk appetite," he wrote.
下周开始就要进入圣诞行情了，英文区的叫法是 "圣诞老人行情"，指的是在圣诞节后的一周，即当年的最后5个交易日至次年的前2个交易日，标普500的表现情况，从结果来看，从结果来看，79%有有的情况下，圣诞节行情是上涨的，这一周的时间最高上涨是 7.4% ，最高下跌是 4.2% 。平均涨幅在 1.3% 左右。... https://t.co/KHocVEx2e9 pic.twitter.com/gQxnkXa4iz
- Phyrex (@Phyrex_Ni) December 21, 2025
According to the analyst, if markets manage to rise between Christmas and New Year without any new macroeconomic catalysts, this will confirm that investors are still willing to allocate capital to risky assets, laying the emotional groundwork for 2026.
In contrast, a rally failure would signal that risk appetite has not yet returned, leaving markets vulnerable to weakness throughout January.
Michael Chao, a popular commentator focused on the US markets, recalled historical data: since 1950, the S&P 500 has risen 75% of the time during this period, with an average gain of 1.55%.
Liquidity at lows and headwinds
Despite the seasonal optimism, many remain cautious. Analyst Cryptojiejie pointed out that global volumes of Bitcoin and Ethereum have fallen to 2025 lows, describing the current phase as "junk time" for traders and advising to wait for liquidity to return.
On the macroeconomic front, recent moves by central banks are weighing heavily. Zhou Financial highlighted concerns over the Bank of Japan's rate hike to 0.75 per cent in December, which could trigger the dismantling of the 'yen carry trade'.
Parallel to this, the Federal Reserve's rate cut - limited to 25 basis points and accompanied by a dot plot of only two more cuts in 2026 - disappointed those hoping for a more accommodative policy.
China closes doors but looks abroad
The manic focus on Wall Street also reflects the lack of domestic alternatives. In early December, seven major Chinese financial associations issued a joint warning about the risks, marking the toughest crackdown since the 2021 ban.
For the first time, the ban was explicitly extended to the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), as well as stablecoin, airdrop and mining. With regulators sealing off every possible entry point, Chinese investors can only watch the global markets from the sidelines, hoping Father Christmas will bring some momentum for the year ahead.
