The institution led by Christine Lagarde is historically a temple of certainty, yet today it finds itself navigating in a sea of ambiguity. In recent days, a dual narrative has begun to circulate in the corridors of Frankfurt and Brussels: on the one hand, speculation about an early exit by the President; on the other, the definitive acceleration towards the digital euro. Two clocks ticking in unison, destined to reshape the financial face of the continent.
The political factor: the leadership clock
Recent rumours from the Financial Times suggest that Christine Lagarde may leave office before her natural expiry date of October 2027. The timeline seems to be inextricably linked to the French presidential elections in April 2027. In Europe, the fates of institutions and national politics often converge: an orderly succession would allow for a smooth transition, avoiding surprises for the markets.
Although an ECB spokesperson reiterated that Lagarde has made no decisions on the matter and remains committed to her mandate, the feeling of an imminent changing of the guard loads every move with significance. Lagarde is not just a central banker; she is the 'public translator' of complex projects that affect the daily lives of citizens.
The technical countdown: the digital euro becomes reality
While politics discusses chairs, the ECB's technical machine is moving along precise tracks. The digital euro project has entered a crucial phase. According to updated documents, a call for payment service providers (PSPs) will be launched in the first quarter of 2026. The official publication is expected in March 2026, with a window of about six weeks to collect expressions of interest.
This is no longer just a theoretical exercise. The ECB plans to launch a pilot phase in the second half of 2027, with a duration of 12 months. During this period, between 5,000 and 10,000 Eurosystem employees and a select group of 15-25 traders will conduct real-world transactions in a controlled environment. If the legislation is adopted by 2026, the goal is full operation in 2029.
The numbers involved: between billions and trillions
The figures make clear the magnitude of the challenge. The ECB estimates total development costs at around EUR 1.3 billion, with annual operating costs of around EUR 320 million from 2029 onwards. This is a massive investment to create a public payment infrastructure that can compete with private giants and stablecoins.
However, digital will not erase the physical. As of January 2026, net euro banknotes in circulation amount to about 1.6 trillion euro. This figure is part of a broader monetary context, with the euro area M2 aggregate standing at EUR 16.07 trillion (December 2025). The digital euro will have to fit into this ecosystem without destabilising bank funding or savers' confidence.
A horizon of monetary stability
The leadership debate comes at a time of relative macroeconomic calm. On 5 February 2026, the ECB kept the deposit rate at 2.00%, confirming a data-dependent approach. Inflation is gradually slowing down, falling to 1.7% in January 2026 from 2.0% in December.
In this scenario of lower rates, communication becomes the main tool. Whether it is Lagarde or her successor who crosses the finish line, the challenge remains the same: to convince governments and citizens that the digital euro is an instrument of sovereignty and not control. Should policy delay and the law slip to 2027, the readiness of the system would be delayed until 2030, leaving further room for private dollar-based infrastructure.
The next key date is set for March 2026. It will be then that companies will have to decide whether to sit at the table or stand by while Europe rewrites the rules of money.
