Bitcoin: Bitfinex Whales Retreat Before Rally?

In the world of Bitcoin, it is often said that every investor has a chart that "always works" and a scar left from the last time that chart failed.

This week, the focus is all on the Bitfinex long margin chart, which is showing a change in the rather familiar technical 'body language'. After reaching new peaks, the long contract line is starting to flex: a subtle rollover that many are reading as the prelude to a new market phase.

The "Whale-signal": What's happening on Bitfinex

Bitfinex is historically known as the marketplace where the biggest and most "stubborn" traders operate. Long positions on this platform are often seen as an indicator of big money conviction. Recently, margin longs have reached 72,700 BTC, a level reminiscent of the highs seen in the 2024 cycle.

However, a drop in this parameter is not necessarily an ominous sign. When leveraged positions begin to drain, market fragility diminishes: there is less 'fuel' for potential liquidation cascades. If this de-risking occurs in an orderly fashion, price may begin to respond more to real demand than to forced closures.

Bitfinex whales have begun to close their long positions, has declared Crypto Rover on X.

The true driver: ETF flows and liquidity in early 2026

Although Bitfinex offers a fascinating narrative, the real "heartbeat" of the current market is the flows of spot ETFs in the US. Data from Farside Investors show extreme volatility in these early 2026s:

• 2 January 2026: A positive net inflow of about +$471 million.
• 5-7 January 2026: A sharp reversal with outflows of about -$1.1 billion.

This dichotomy suggests that institutional sentiment is extremely reactive. Even giants such as BlackRock's IBIT have seen record days of outflows (over USD 500 million in November), confirming that the market is now closely linked to the risk dynamics of traditional finance.

The Macro Context: Financial Conditions and the Federal Reserve

To understand whether Bitcoin will be able to run in the next six months, one needs to look beyond cryptocurrencies. The Chicago Fed's NFCI index (National Financial Conditions Index) as of 2 January 2026 showed a value of -0.5536. A negative value indicates looser-than-average financial conditions, which usually favours risk assets.

However, rate expectations remain the main handbrake. Monitoring via the FedWatch Tool has become essential: any data on inflation or employment shifts the odds of rate cuts, directly affecting investors' appetite for Bitcoin.

Three scenarios for the next six weeks

The near-term future appears to depend on the interplay between Bitfinex's unwind and ETF demand:

1. The Healthy Reset: Longs on Bitfinex continue to fall without panic, while ETFs return to positive. Bitcoin could grind a 10-15% rise steadily.
2. The Short Squeeze: Leverage declines, fragility disappears and positive macro news triggers a buying spree. This is the scenario that would lead to the 30-35% rallies so much cited on social media.
3. The Confirming Risk-Off: The drop in the longs on Bitfinex coincides with strong outflows from ETFs and a tightening of macro conditions. In this case, the rollover would not be a reset, but the beginning of a deeper correction.

Big Analysts' Predictions: Is $150,000 Still Possible?

Despite the uncertainty, the big institutions maintain ambitious targets, albeit with more caution. Standard Chartered recently revised its target for the end of 2026 to $150,000 (down from the previous $300,000), tying the success of the cycle almost exclusively to purchases via ETF.

In contrast, Bernstein maintains a forecast of $150,000 for 2026, aiming for a peak of $200,000 in 2027 thanks to the "tokenization" asset narrative.

In the end, the Bitfinex chart tells us that the pressure is leaving the room. Whether this room will be filled with new institutional capital or remain empty, we will only find out by monitoring ETF flow charts on a daily basis.