Bitcoin breaks ground: above $95,000 amid US inflation and winds of war in Iran

The cryptocurrency market experienced a sudden jolt on Tuesday, with Bitcoin jumping above the psychological threshold of $95,000.

This is the highest level reached by the leading cryptocurrency in 50 days, a move triggered by an explosive combination of reassuring macroeconomic data in the United States and a sharp escalation of geopolitical risk in the Middle East.

The geopolitical factor: the State Department's warning

The spark that turned a positive trend into a veritable vertical rally was the US State Department's emergency communication. Washington issued a peremptory warning to US citizens to 'leave Iran immediately' and to prepare for prolonged communication blackouts.

US citizens should leave Iran immediately. Consider leaving by land to Turkey or Armenia if it is safe to do so. Protests across Iran continue to intensify, has published TravelGov on X.

The alert comes at a time of extreme fragility: mass protests continue to shake Iranian territory, while the White House's rhetoric towards Tehran is becoming increasingly harsh.

The fear of a large-scale regional conflict has prompted investors to seek shelter in alternative and decentralised assets. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin reasserted its role as 'digital gold', an asset that operates outside of government control and tends to outperform in times of global instability and censorship of communications infrastructure.

Macroeconomy: CPI removes obstacles

Although the crisis in Iran provided the final acceleration, the foundations for the rally had already been laid in the early hours of the day. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed stable inflation. Although prices continue to rise, the pace is not accelerating, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will not be forced to aggressively raise interest rates again in the near term.

For the crypto sector, this scenario is ideal: inflationary stability banishes the spectre of a recession caused by excessive monetary tightening, creating a favourable environment for risk assets. The CPI report removed the main downside risk just as the Bitcoin was looking for a solid footing after weeks of intense ETF-related selling.

The end of the washout and the consolidation of ETFs

The jump from $91,000 to over $95,000 (an increase of over 5% in a few hours) did not happen in a vacuum. At the beginning of January, the market had undergone a severe correction: spot ETFs on Bitcoin in the US had seen outflows of over $6 billion.

Bitcoin rises above $96,000 for the first time since 16 November, said reported Kobeissi Letter on X.

Many investors, who entered during the October rally, had closed their positions at a loss, pushing the price towards the ETFs' $86,000 cost base.

However, the latest data indicate that the 'washout' phase is over. While US institutions have paused buying, global buyers have absorbed the excess supply. Even the 'Coinbase Premium', while turning negative, signalled a cautious phase rather than capitulation, allowing the market to stabilise ahead of the new push.

Outlook: the march towards $100,000

With the break of resistance at $93,000 first and the breakthrough of $95,000 later, Bitcoin confirmed the entry of robust new demand. The movement dragged the entire sector along with it: Ethereum, Solana and XRP posted significant gains, confirming a newfound euphoria in the digital asset market.

Analysts are now looking optimistically to the short-term future. Should flows to ETFs turn positive and geopolitical tensions remain high, the next decisive test will be the historic $100,000 mark.

This rally is not just a matter of numbers, but proof that Bitcoin continues to evolve as a dual asset: a macroeconomic investment in times of stability and a critical safe haven asset in times of global crisis.