This week, global markets witnessed an unprecedented boost in precious metals, with gold and silver shattering previous all-time highs. This performance is creating a "financial gap" that, according to many observers, sets the stage for an imminent recovery rally in Bitcoin, often referred to as "digital gold".
Precious Metals in Orbit
According to the data from Gold Price, gold has crossed the psychological threshold of $4,600 per ounce, and industry experts are already predicting a possible rise above $5,000. At the same time, silver surpassed $90, taking its market capitalisation to over $5 trillion for the first time.
This rush towards so-called 'hard assets' reflects an investor flight from sovereign debt risks, fuelled by growing global macroeconomic uncertainty.
In this context, Bitcoin showed signs of strength by surpassing $95,000 in the past 24 hours, marking its highest of the year, although its movement appeared more restrained than in metals.
The Rotation Thesis: Bitcoin Follows Gold
For analysts, the lagging Bitcoin is not a sign of weakness, but a familiar dynamic. André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, argues that gold prices serve as a leading indicator for the crypto market. Through statistical causality tests, Dragosch showed that gold tends to anticipate Bitcoin's movements with a lag of between four and seven months.
This "Gold to Bitcoin Rotation" suggests that institutional capital, after taking refuge in the yellow metal, will move to the digital asset as soon as risk appetite stabilises.
Analyst Sminston With also confirms this view, noting that while gold is in a phase of "parabolic price discovery", Bitcoin is only in the early stages of a corresponding shift.
The Scarcity Effect and the Role of ETFs
In addition to technical correlations, fundamentals play a key role. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, compares the current Bitcoin market to the gold rush of 2025.
Hougan explains that gold's parabolic rally (+65% in 2025) was the result of a depletion of supply after years of massive buying by central banks.
The same pattern is replicating itself for Bitcoin. Since the launch of spot ETFs in the US in January 2024, these instruments have purchased over 100 per cent of the new supply issued.
So far, the price has been restrained by sales from long-term holders, but Hougan warns that when these sellers 'run out of ammunition', the price of Bitcoin will undergo a vertical revaluation, just as happened to gold.
Fed crisis and macroeconomic drivers
Driving investors towards assets immune to political interference is also the crisis of confidence in the Federal Reserve. The recent criminal investigations involving the Fed's top management have shaken the stability of the dollar.
While gold reacts immediately as a primary safe haven asset, Bitcoin acts as a 'convex hedge', attracting capital once the initial shock has been absorbed.
Price Forecasts: Target $130,000
The options market reflects this optimism. On Deribit, traders are betting on calls at $100,000 for March and even at $125,000. Should the historical correlation with gold persist, analysts point to a short-term target for Bitcoin of between $120,000 and $130,000.
This growth would represent a similar percentage gain to that of silver, which historically tends to outperform gold in the late stages of a bullish physical commodities market.
