Bitcoin predicted a 'Quantum Apocalypse'. How realistic is this?

Quantum computers pose a threat not only to Bitcoin, but also to the traditional financial system.

Although there is currently no device powerful enough to breach Bitcoin's algorithms, experts point out that it is only a matter of time. The financial damage could amount to trillions of dollars. And this only concerns Bitcoin. Data from a 2022 study by the Hudson Institute showed that a breach of Bitcoin's cryptocurrency could cause losses in cryptocurrency and other markets of more than $3 trillion, with the risk of causing a deep recession.

"This is a ticking time bomb ready to explode," said Arthur Herman, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, pointing out that damage estimates from a possible attack have risen sharply because of Bitcoin's breach above $100,000 in December.

"Bitcoin will be targeted in a big way. Banks have some regulations and protections for their customers, while Bitcoin is the Wild West. Your wallet won't compensate you if your Bitcoins are stolen," said Skip Sanzeri, co-founder of quantum security startup QuSecure.

Bitcoin Touches Historical High of 108.000 Dollars Amid the Concerns of Quantum Calculus

On 16 December, Bitcoin (BTC) prices surpassed $108,000 for the first time in history, making it an all-time high. According to Coinmarketcap data as of 24 December (16:00), the main cryptocurrency is trading at $94.6 thousand.

However, experts point out that this possibility will not occur in the near future. Entrepreneur and former Google product manager Kevin Rose stated in a post on X that the capabilities of the Willow chip are still far from posing a real threat to cryptocurrencies. Rose noted that Bitcoin would require a quantum computer with around 13 million qubits to perform a 'hack' in less than 24 hours. Willow, while a great achievement, has only 105 qubits.

"Certainly, there is a quantum apocalypse looming on the horizon at some indefinite point in the future, but that time is still far off, so there is no reason to panic," said Emin Gün Sirer, founder of the cryptocurrency Avalanche.

Others believe that the development of quantum computing may, on the contrary, improve Bitcoin's security. Among them is Adam Back, co-founder and CEO of Blockstream, a company working to create the ecosystem of Bitcoin. Back is one of the best-known cryptographers in the industry and a candidate for the role of Bitcoin's anonymous creator, known by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto.

Back believes that research in quantum computing will lead to the creation of more reliable algorithms that can be integrated into Bitcoin in the future.

It is interesting to note that in 2010, on Bitcointalk, the largest forum dedicated to Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto had already commented on the possibility of an attack on Bitcoin. At the time, he saw no serious consequences for the main cryptocurrency, proposing a gradual transition to new cryptographic functions or, alternatively, a more radical solution: a hard fork, i.e. the launch of a copy of a new blockchain in the event of a successful attack. At the same time, he hinted at the possible loss of some data and estimated that it would take several decades to create attacks of such power against Bitcoin.

A similar solution to the problem of a possible attack on cryptocurrencies via quantum computers was proposed by Vitalik Buterin, founder of Ethereum, the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalisation, in March of this year.

Buterin claimed that the problem could be solved by a simple hard fork, in which users would have to download new software and "few users would lose their funds."

The problem could be solved by a simple hard fork, in which users would have to download new software and "few users would lose their funds."