Seven of eight FOMC meetings in 2025 ended with Bitcoin in the red. In January 2026, even with a widely expected hold, BTC dropped 7.3% in 48 hours. The pattern is familiar: markets price everything in advance, reality lands, and bulls get caught off guard. This week, the script might finally break. Powell speaks while Trump publicly demands rate cuts and while his nominated successor, Kevin Warsh, sits blocked in the Senate amid a Justice Department criminal probe into Powell's presidency. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England also decide within the same 48-hour window, after the Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% Monday night. The subtext, as usual, outweighs the headline.
A Week Nobody Is Really Waiting For
Markets have priced in a hold. CME FedWatch assigns over 95% probability that rates stay between 3.50% and 3.75%. No surprises expected on paper. The real event is Powell's press conference, scheduled for 1:30 PM Eastern on April 29. It will be his last.
Technical analyst Aksel Kibar, frequently cited by Peter Brandt, has framed Bitcoin's position in one line: test the annual average value, and only enter long positions above that threshold. In plain terms: $78,000 is the key level. Above it, the path opens toward $86,000. Below it, the recalibration target is $72,000.
Powell Exits, Warsh Waits
Jerome Powell's term expires on May 15. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh in January. Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing took place on April 21, and the picture that emerged was sharp: Republicans back him, Democrats challenge him, but the nomination is being held up by a single Republican, Thom Tillis of North Carolina. Tillis has no issue with Warsh personally. His objection targets a DOJ criminal investigation into Powell's tenure, widely seen as a political pressure move against the Fed. “Remove this probe and I can support the confirmation,” Tillis said during the hearing.
Warsh has pledged independence and proposed a structural overhaul of the Fed: fewer press conferences, an end to forward guidance, and a narrow focus on inflation. His argument is that the Fed has lost market credibility and needs structural reform to recover it. Janet Yellen has already pushed back publicly: “I don't see the FOMC accepting that in the near term,” the former chair said. For now, Warsh is not confirmed. For now, the Fed moves without a clear helmsman.
April's Data Does Not Confirm the Fear
Happy Sunday, though
— Jesse Cohen (@JesseCohenInv) April 26, 2026
Here Are My #Top5ThingsToKnowThisWeek:
1, and fed Rate Decision
2. Yet FOMC Statement
3. Powell Press Conference
4. $AAPL $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN $META Earnings
5. $XOM $LLY $CAT $V $KO $UPS Earnings
May The Trading Gods Be With You 🙏$DIA $SPY $QQQ $IWM $VIX https://t.co/cuZPXt4ckW pic.twitter.com/hupk4KvOce
While sentiment signals fear, spot Bitcoin ETF flows tell a different story. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nine consecutive days of net inflows between April 14 and April 24, totaling $2.12 billion. The single-day peak, on April 17, brought in $663.91 million. The 2026 cumulative total stands at $58.23 billion. Over those eight trading sessions, ETFs absorbed 19,000 BTC, far more than miners produced in the same period.
Yet Bitcoin holds at $78,000. Binance Research certified in early April that the BTC-Fed correlation has inverted: Bitcoin now leads, it doesn't follow. If that thesis still holds, the most important market move of the week may not come after Powell's decision on Wednesday. It may have already happened across those nine prior sessions.
What to Watch in the Next 48 Hours
In practice, powell's final press conference begins at 1:30 PM Eastern on April 29. After that, the calendar compresses fast. April 30 brings U.S. Q1 GDP and March PCE inflation data, while the ECB and Bank of England both announce within the same narrow window. On May 15, Powell leaves. The real question isn't whether Warsh will be confirmed in time, but whether Senator Tillis will drop his hold once the DOJ probe into Powell's tenure is resolved. Markets already have their radar locked on that outcome.
